預測大溫房地產走勢2020 Predicted Vancouver Housing Market: 2 years ago, a real estate expert has predicted the Vancouver housing market will fall. Now we all know he was right.
Dane Eitel’s new research suggests buyers will have more breathing room for at least two more years, even though overall sales rose in May.
Eitel says: “We’re firmly in the downtrend. May historically is one of the better sales months and this time, we see, basically a $150,000 price decrease based on the last five years of May prices. We’re going lower, longer. By the middle of 2020, average sale prices should be right around $1.4 million for the detached market, signaling a 20 to 24 percent drop. There are some factors that could maybe cause the detached market to go even lower.”
My comments: this is right as you can see, more inventories available in the market that means more competitions for the sellers.
Eitel predicted that in the middle of 2020, the average single house price around $1.4million, but could even drop to $1.2million as more home sellers than home buyers.
Eitel also mentioned that the condo market will need a more competitive price to attract home buyers to buy. And the condo developers will provide more incentive to attract buyers to make a purchase.
There’s going to be a flood of inventory that comes up that no one’s really anticipating, which is all those investors that bought five and six properties are just going to walk away, simply walk away from their 15 per cent deposit, 20 per cent deposit. There’s going to be an absolute ton of inventory available.
Despite sales climbing, overall buyer demand remains low with the total value of purchases in May dropping almost 23 percent under the ten year average for the month.
Vancouver Housing Market back to Stable – 溫哥華獨立屋價格回歸平穩？According to the deputy chief economist of Central 1 Credit Union – Metro Vancouver detached home prices should stabilize later this year but condo prices will continue to fall…
Deputy Chief Economist from Central 1, Bryan Yu says that he will see some stabilization by the end of this year on the detached housing market. But, for the condo prices, it might keep dropping down due to more condos out on the market, the downward pressure will continue.
Central 1 released its Resale Market Housing Outlook 2019-2021 May.28th’s morning; Bryan also mentioned that the detached homes market will stabilize faster than the condo/apartment market because of the housing market has been dropped for a longer period of time.
The report, written by Yu, said the Metro real estate slump is not related to the economy, which is expanding. Instead, it is being driven by government policy at all three levels of government. The federal government has put in place stress tests for new buyers, meaning they have to be able to afford payments at a higher interest rate than the rate on offer. The provincial government has increased its foreign-buyers tax to 20 percent, forcing more foreign investors away from Vancouver housing, while the City of Vancouver has introduced a tax on high-value homes that are left vacant.
Other than Vancouver, the Islands are doing OK, Northern BC’s market is rising, and it might keep rising for the next 1 to 2 years.
What about the interest rate? Don’t worry, Yu mentioned the interest will be steady in 2019-2021.
According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s monthly report for April, “reduced demand and increased MLS Vancouver inventory remain the trend across Metro Vancouver’s housing market.” This had led to an 11 percent fall in the benchmark price of a detached home over the past year to $1.425 million, and a 6.9 percent drop in the benchmark price for an apartment to $657,000.
房屋空置税深入了解 | Speculation, and Vacancy Tax: All residential property owners in the designated taxable regions must complete an annual declaration for the SVT. Where there are multiple owners of a home, a declaration must be completed by each owner, as long as they are on title.
Speculation and Vacancy Tax applies based on ownership as of December 31 each year; however, there are 2 important date: 1. A declaration is due on March 31, 2019; 2. Tax payment due on July 2, 2019.
Please don’t panic; there are exemptions, we are going to explain a little bit more next.
Principal residence exemptions
Occupied by a tenant
Other exemptions
1st: Principal residence exemptions主要居住豁免
If you are a Canadian citizen or permanent resident of Canada, you can apply for exemptions; which also include B.C. resident for income tax purposes. But you gotta make sure you are not part of a satellite family.
Note: Spouses generally cannot claim two different principal residence exemptions unless they are living apart from spouse for work or medical reasons.
This exemption generally applies to an owner who lives at a place for a longer period in a calendar year than any other place unless the following conditions are met:
Lived in a home before going into residential care
Away from home for medical reasons
Person with a disability lives in the residence
Lived in the residence before moving out of province
Away from home for other reasons (valid once every ten years)
2nd: Occupied by a tenant 有租客居住可以豁免
The house owners can rent his/her property out to be exempt; however, rent it to their children or spouses cannot be accepted. Plus; a non-arm’s length tenant does not need to have a written rental
agreement in place or pay rent.
Tenants must occupy the residence for at least 6 months of the year: the property can be rent to different tenants; also can combine the number of months rent to an arm’s length tenant.
What can you do if you are a foreign owner? You can rent to a tenant who is: 1. A Canadian citizen or permanent resident; 2. resident of B.C. for income tax purposes as at December 31; 3. Not a member of a satellite family; 4. Have a B.C. income for the calendar year that is equal to or greater than 3 times the annual fair market rent for the entire residential property.
B.C. residents Canadians who are not satellite families:
⇒Up to $2,000 per owner on a secondary property
⇒Up to $2,000 per property in the case of multiple owners
Non-B.C. resident Canadians who are not satellite families
⇒5% based on income claimed in B.C. and the tax credit cannot reduce the tax rate below the rate for an equivalent B.C. resident
Foreign owners and satellite families
⇒20% (5% in 2018) of their B.C. income and the tax credit cannot reduce the tax rate below the rate for an equivalent B.C. resident
BC省禁止建农地豪宅 | No More Luxury Homes In Farmland: On Feb.23rd.2019; the provincial government has announced new legislation – banned ‘mega mansions’ on farmland ( in BC, luxury homes on agricultural land reserve (ALR) has officially been banned).
In Nov.2018, Bill 52 was introduced – any new home on ALR must less than 5,400 sq.ft of its floor area. But the owner can still apply for the larger size of the home if they can provide direct evidence that convinces the government – a larger home really help your farm business.
“I’m very happy to see this law come into full force and effect. This new law will encourage farming and better protect farmland by banning mega-mansions, stopping the illegal dumping of waste on farmland and reinstating the one-zone system,” said BC Minister of Agriculture Lana Popham in a statement.
For applicants who had all of their Agricultural Land Commission permits before 23rd.Feb; when the new regulations became law, will be grandfathered under the old system, but they must begin substantial construction no later than November 5 of 2019.
Vancouver Realtor’s perspective: welcome this legislation; a farm is a farm; please not to use it build a super-luxury house, and paying less property tax on ALR. We should save more farmlands to grow more vegetables or fruits for local people.
If you drive all the way down to Steveston from No.2 road Richmond, we will probably see a lot of constructions around this area – farm owners start building their dream houses – the castle.
Downtown Vancouver Real Estate | Best & Worst Cities
Best and Worst Cities for Singles Looking to Purchase Real Estate
Amongst Canadian cities, the challenge of owning a home is significantly varied. By a wide margin, Regina proves to be the most affordable for Canadian singles.
Regina:
First, according to a recent Canadian study, singles in Regina, Saskatchewan are purchasing at approximately $290,000. With an average income of $59,000 – at least an income of $39,000 is necessary to purchase a home in this city.
Edmonton:
Second, Edmonton ranks amongst the top most affordable cities in Canada. In Edmonton, the average home price is at $340,000 and the median earnings of $65,000 make it feasible for singles.
Calgary:
Third, with the average home being valued at $450,000, Calgary is the one city in Canada where the median price of homes is less than the median income. With $61,305 as the required income to purchase a home in this city, this nets an income surplus of $5,500 and $2,800.
Vancouver real estate:
Next, Without any surprise, Vancouver is by far the worst city to purchase a home for a single earner. Owning a home in Vancouver has become more and more difficult over the years. Homes in Vancouver are at an average of $1 million and the income required would be more than $135,000.
Toronto:
Toronto is ranked as the second worst place in Canada for buyers, slightly more feasible than Vancouver. The minimum income required to purchase a home in Toronto is $102,079. The average home price is at $748,000, more than double the median income for all age groups.
Finally, After Toronto and Vancouver, the most unaffordable real estate markets for single buyers are Abbotsford, Victoria, and Hamilton-Burlington.
Comments: We are all living in Vancouver; to be honest with you, we really want the real estate price dropped back to 2010’s level. One of my friends, he is working at Simon Fraser University, making roughly Fifty thousand per year, but only around thirty thousand on hand (after taxes).
If he doesn’t eat, rent, play, and drive; he probably can save three hundred thousand after 10 years – only barely enough for the downpayment. In reality, how can we do not spend any money in 10 years?????
To be a realtor, we want commissions (this is how we live); but we want more people can live in affordability homes.
If you need more information about Real Estate Downtown Vancouver, please check our MLS Listings Vancouver page.
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